Thursday, July 22, 2010

Baltic Dry vs. Container Index

This has got me thinking:  The BDI has collapsed while the CI is soaring.  What gives?
Well, the CI reflects not only demand, but also the number of containers available, which has been constrained since 2008.  More important: The CI is finished goods in those boxes, while the BDI is raw materials.  The BDI leads, the CI follows.  What could turn this on its head is if final demand keeps up, the BDI will be spiked higher soon.  My money would be for the BDI to stabilize, and container rates (which is more of a lagging indicator) to begin to slow.

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