Pulse of Commerce Index

Last Week

Positives

1) Oct payrolls surprise big to the upside
2) Fed lights another fire under asset prices but are we really wealthier as a result?
3) Emerging markets continue to rally as investors seek non $ assets
4) Oct auto sales rise to best since Sept ’08 ex clunkers
5) ISM services and mfr’g indices both above forecasts
6) RBA and RBI raise rates to cool inflation pressures
7) Fed to allow healthy banks pay dividends.

Negatives

1) Huge printing of money has turned our central bank into a 3rd world one
2) Asset priced induced wealth effect is an illusion if a debased currency and higher inflation is the side effect
3) Deeper the Fed gets, the more difficult it will be to reverse
4) Commodity inflation as measured by CRB index rises to 2 year high
5) Ireland, Portugal and Greece financial concerns continue to grow
6) German Sept factory orders fall sharply
7) Sept Pending Home Sales unexpectedly fall.

This Chart Doesn't Compute! (vs. earlier recessions)

Typically BEFORE the end of every recession, new home sales rise sharply, and keep rising afterwards.
This time?  Not so much.

This graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 47 years. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Sales of new single-family houses in September 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 307,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.6 percent (±16.9%)* above the revised August rate of 288,000, but is 21.5 percent (±13.3%) below the September 2009 estimate of 391,000.

Trucking

ATA: Truck Tonnage Index increases in September: "Economy barely growing"

From the American Trucking Association: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Rose 1.7 Percent in September

The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 1.7 percent in September after falling a revised 2.8 percent in August. The latest gain put the SA index at 108.7 (2000=100) in September from 106.9 in August.
...
Compared with September 2009, SA tonnage climbed 5.1 percent, which was well above August’s 2.9 percent year-over-year gain. Year-to-date, tonnage is up 6.1 percent compared with the same period in 2009.

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said that truck tonnage over the last few months fits with an economy that is growing very slowly. “While I am glad to report that tonnage grew in September, the fact remains thattruck freight volumes leveled off over the summer and early autumn. This is a reflection of an economy that is barely growing.”

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This graph from the ATA shows the Truck Tonnage Index since Jan 2006.

The lines are added to show the index has mostly "leveled off".

yuk

Consumer Metrics' Contraction Severity

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Chicago Fed Activity Index Weakens

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