Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Preview of Coming Attractions
On Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference "Monetary Policy Objectives and Tools in a Low-Inflation Environment".
Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ has a preview: Fed Chief Gets Set to Apply Lessons of Japan's History
Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ has a preview: Fed Chief Gets Set to Apply Lessons of Japan's History
Mr. Bernanke is preparing for a potentially important policy speech Friday, when he could detail his thinking on the Fed's next steps ... The conference is a reprise of a 1999 conference at which Mr. Bernanke and other academics took Japanese officials to task for failing to get their economy moving.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
NFIB Survey Charts
By request, here are a few graphs based on the NFIB press release: Small Business Optimism Index Remains at Recessionary Level
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
The first graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. Although the index increased slightly in September, it is still at recessionary level according to NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg who said: "The downturn may be officially over, but small business owners have for the most part seen no evidence of it."
The second graph shows the net hiring plans over the next three months.
Hiring plans have turned negative again. According to NFIB: "Over the next three months, eight percent plan to increase employment (unchanged), and 16 percent plan to reduce their workforce (up three points), yielding a seasonally adjusted net negative three percent of owners planning to create new jobs, down four points from August."
And the third graph shows the percent of small businesses saying "poor sales" is their biggest problem.
Usually small business owners complain about taxes and regulations (that usually means business is good!), but now their self reported biggest problem is lack of demand.
Click on graph for larger image in new window.The first graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. Although the index increased slightly in September, it is still at recessionary level according to NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg who said: "The downturn may be officially over, but small business owners have for the most part seen no evidence of it."
The second graph shows the net hiring plans over the next three months.Hiring plans have turned negative again. According to NFIB: "Over the next three months, eight percent plan to increase employment (unchanged), and 16 percent plan to reduce their workforce (up three points), yielding a seasonally adjusted net negative three percent of owners planning to create new jobs, down four points from August."
And the third graph shows the percent of small businesses saying "poor sales" is their biggest problem.Usually small business owners complain about taxes and regulations (that usually means business is good!), but now their self reported biggest problem is lack of demand.
Friday, October 8, 2010
THIS IS VERY POWERFUL
Percent Job Losses During Recessions, aligned at Bottom
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms - this time aligned at the bottom of the recession (Both the 1991 and 2001 recessions were flat at the bottom, so the choice was a little arbitrary).
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms - this time aligned at the bottom of the recession (Both the 1991 and 2001 recessions were flat at the bottom, so the choice was a little arbitrary).
Oh, Joy
Diffusion Indexes
This is a little more technical ...
The BLS diffusion index for total private employment declined to 49.8 from 54.1 in August. For manufacturing, the diffusion index declined to 46.3 from 48.2 in August.
Both indexes are down sharply from earlier this year.
Think of this as a measure of how widespread job gains are across industries. The further from 50 (above or below), the more widespread the job losses or gains reported by the BLS. From the BLS:
This is a little more technical ...
The BLS diffusion index for total private employment declined to 49.8 from 54.1 in August. For manufacturing, the diffusion index declined to 46.3 from 48.2 in August.Both indexes are down sharply from earlier this year.
Think of this as a measure of how widespread job gains are across industries. The further from 50 (above or below), the more widespread the job losses or gains reported by the BLS. From the BLS:
Figures are the percent of industries with employment increasing plus one-half of the industries with unchanged employment, where 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industries with increasing and decreasing employment.
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