Thursday, October 7, 2010

Then we came across this surreal column in the op-ed article of yesterday’s NYT 
by Daniel Gross.  His message is that “the new frugality is a myth — and that's 
good for the economy.”  He adds, “for this recovery to mature, broaden and 
persist, the greatest economic force known to mankind — the American 
consumer — has to get back in the game.”  
Wow.  Talk about playing by the old rules.  There was no mention in the article 
the fact that with a 70% share of GDP, the U.S. consumer never exactly went 
into hibernation, even if spending decisions have changed.  
Then he goes on to extol the virtues of debt (what would Kant say?) and longs 
for the days when we collectively lived beyond our means: “The renewed 
willingness and confidence to spend money we don’t have is vital to the 
continuing recovery.”  
Huh?  And I thought employment and income were the vital components to 
sustainable growth.   
Then Mr. Gross goes on to say — brace yourself: “Money may make the world go 
'round, but credit makes the gears of commerce run smoothly.”  
Yes, sure it does.  Up until you reach a point where 30% of the population have a 
sub-620 FICO score.   
But listen to this ... the coup-de-grace: “As the economy slowly recovers, there 
are signs that Americans are rediscovering their free-spending ways.  Total 
consumer credit, which includes non-revolving debt like car loans, have 
stabilized, and it rose in both June and July.  It’s back to where it was in the 
second quarter of 2009.” 
What?   

CdeR: wow, combine the above with NY Fed VP Brian Sack's comments that lifting asset
prices higher than they would be via Fed asset purcahses "would be a good thing" and you
get a glimpse into the crack addicted economy that is the USA.

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

KEEP AN EYE ON THIS, CMI INDEX CONTINUES TO WEAKEN!!!

What a Currency War Really Means

Beggar thy neighbor FX policy is akin to trying to steal jobs from other countries. This never ends well.

How do some folks find their way to work each day?

I was listening to some guy on Bloomberg extolling the virtuous circle of corp profits and piles of cash...this guest was so bulled up! But he's reading the wrong signs...profits are a lagging, not a leading indicator. Please look again at the earlier posts from Consumer Metrics...and look at today's ADP report and the revised IMF FORECAST for the USA. Tells another story, no?

Currency War, Redux

----- Original Message -----
From: Douglas Borthwick
Sent: Tue Oct 05 23:44:12 2010
Subject: Friday IMF Side Meeting

We are increasingly interested in the Currency-Focussed Side meeting that has been arranged at the IMF Meeting on Friday.  We note that with the weakening USD and increased talk of trade wars, that the possibility of a new 'Plaza' Accord is now not out of the question.  We note that at the time of the Plaza Accord the US Current Account as a %age of GDP was running at 3-3.5%.  In Q2 2010 the US current account as a %age of GDP was 3.4% of GDP.  Also going into the Plaza Accord, interest rates were near all time lows in most countries, a similar situation to today.  In 1985 Germany and Japan financed the US deficits through purchasing US fixed income.  This time around China and Japan are the primary financiers.  Following the Plaza Accord Japan and Europe saw their currencies strengthen by 50% and the US weakened by the same amount.  With a Current Account deficit at elevated levels once more, interest rates at near lows and trade wars looming another Accord may be on the near-term horizon

We are really that dumb!? USA favors Japan over China

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6951V820101006

Friday, October 1, 2010

ISM Mfg

ISM PMI Aug 2010Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

In addition to the decrease in the PMI, the ISM's new orders index fell to 51.1 from 53.1 in August, and the production index declined to 56.5 from 59.9.

The employment index declined to 56.5 from 60.4 in August.