NFP Friday

Released on 6/4/2010 8:30:00 AM For May, 2010

Prior Consensus Consensus Range Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 290,000  540,000  225,000  to 635,000  Unemployment Rate - Level 9.9 % 9.8 % 9.7 % to 9.8 % Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % to 0.2 % Av Workweek - All Employees 34.1 hrs 34.1 hrs 34.1 hrs to 34.2 hrs

Hungary joins the parade...

Forint Slides as Hungary admits they are in the same shape as Greece:

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Jobless Outlook by State

Since tomorrow is the big NFP report, lets take a look at this EPI breakdown of Unemployment by State.
They note that “while the median duration of unemployment represents the typical job search, it also means that the wait is longer for half of all unemployed workers.” Hence, many of these workers will exhaust 26 weeks of unemployment insurance before landing a permanent new gig.
That has significant repercussions for consumer spending, foreclosures, etc.

Foreclosure Games

The average borrower in foreclosure has been delinquent for 438 days before actually being evicted, up from 251 days in January 2008, according to LPS Applied Analytics.
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More than 650,000 households had not paid in 18 months, LPS calculated earlier this year. With 19 percent of those homes, the lender had not even begun to take action to repossess the property 

ISM non-mfg flat, but employment ticked up.

The May ISM Non-Manufacturing index was at 55.4%, unchanged from April (slightly below expectations). The employment index showed some growth after 28 consecutive months of contraction. 

Consumer Metrics Shows Economy Contracting by Q3

May 30, 2010 - BEA Lowers 1st Quarter GDP Estimate as the Consumer Metrics Institute Previews 3rd Quarter GDP:

On May 27th the BEA released its first revision to its 1st Quarter 2010 GDP growth rate measurement, lowering the number from a 3.2% annualized growth rate to 3.0% annualized growth. One day later the Consumer Metrics Institute's 'Daily Growth Index' was signalling what we should expect the BEA's measurement of the 3rd Quarter 2010 GDP growth rate to be: contracting at about a 2.0% rate.

The prior BEA estimate of 1st Quarter 2010 GDP growth trailed our 'Daily Growth Index' by 127 days, and because of the rapid rate that the economy was cooling when the measurements were being made the newly adjusted estimate is now trailing our 'Daily Growth Index' by 125 days. Since the 3rd Quarter of 2010 ends 125 days after May 28th (when our 'Daily Growth Index' was recording a 'growth' rate of -1.99%), if the BEA estimates continue to trail our 'Daily Growth Index' in a consistent manner we should expect that the 3rd Quarter's GDP 'growth' rate will be in the -2.0% neighborhood.