Friday, April 9, 2010

From Bank of Intl Settlements:

Distressed sales as a % of home sales rising...
Distressed Sales

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Perspectives on the Recession


Change in Nonfarm Payroll


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Change in GDP

Change in Industrial Output


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Chris Martenson - must read!!

YIKES!!!! This is a must read. To whet your appetite, here is a excerpt:
Taken together, this means that in only two short years, 2009 and 2010, as much new Treasury debt will be auctioned off to the public as was outstanding in 1995. Since government borrowing never gets paid down, at least in modern history, it means that the last two years have seen as much borrowing as happened over the period in which electricity was strung to every house, the highways were built, and our population tripled. What can we point to that was created over the last two years to rival those accomplishments.



Overall, the U.S. industry’s hotel occupancy ended the week with a 3.6-percent decrease to 54.1 percent, ADR dropped 4.4 percent to US$94.45, and RevPAR was down 7.9 percent to US$51.05. The first decline in six weeks. But recall that 2009 was the worst year since the 1930s.

Hotel Occupancy Rate

Links:
Projected Interest Payments as a % of GDP:


Jobless Claims came in 10k above the high estimate.
No wonder Ben said what he said yesterday.

Weekly Unemployment Claims

Wednesday, April 7, 2010



Gold in Euros, not Pesos.....Euros




Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 5-1/2 percent in February 2010. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of
13 percent, and nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 1-1/2 percent.
Consumer Credit












Shopping Ctr Vacancies still Rising.
[LEASE]

Mortgage Rates Rising:
The Mortgage Bankers' purchase index, up 0.2 percent in the Easter week, added slightly to prior gains. But mortgage rates are the report's big headline, jumping 27 basis points in the week for 30-year loans to 5.31 percent in what the report blames on the end to Fed purchases of mortgage-backed securities. The jump in rates dried up demand for refinancing with the index down 16.9 percent. - Bloomberg




-Bank Credit: $8,853 bn.Bank credit has contracted $145 bn since Dec. 2009, vs. a contraction of $280 bn for all of 2009.
-Rates: 10yr: 3.94%(++) Fed Funds: 0.25% (=) See Chart Here.
-S&P eps estimate: $80 (+) P/E: 14.3x See Source Here.
-U6 (Jobless + Marginally attached workers): 16.9% Upticks from 16.5%

-Dollar Index: 98.42, down vs. 99.5 on gains in oil and gold last week...Index rebased to 100 on 1.1.10.

-Weightings: US Broad Dollar Index: 60%/Gold 20%/Oil 20%
-DXY index: 103.67 vs. last week's 104.78. (for reference) rebased to 100 on 1.1.10.
-BIC est. 2010 gdp growth: 8.9%, raised from 8.75% due to China forecast
raised by 0.5% by the World Bank.
Weightings: China 60%/India 20%/Brazil 20%.
-China Rates: Tightening bias through loan restrictions: (=/-)